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What Backtests Hide

Investors crave certainty about future returns and backtests seem to provide that. Here's what they don't show.

Time scale of human history and the small slice where we have quality financial data.
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The True Cost of Commodity ETFs

An in-depth explainer on the trading costs, roll yields, and different structures of commodity ETFs.

Confused man with math equations floating around his head.
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The Risk of a Lost Decade for Stocks

Stock risk is most associated with short-term volatility like in March 2020. This post examines the frequency of long-term periods of low returns.

Old newspaper headline about "stock tarnished by lost decade."
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The Case Against Treasury Bonds in 2020

Treasury yields in 2020 guarantee low returns and a muted ability to hedge future stock downside.

Assistant whispering to Vito Corleone in The Godfather.
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The Once in a Decade Bond Opportunity

On the low cost of inflation protection and environments where TIPS historically outperform Treasuries.

Poker player going all-in with their chips.