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Original Research

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Beware of Financial Alchemy

On the folly of chasing yield, why the stock market isn't a puzzle, and how pattern recognition can backfire.

Painting of an alchemist in their workshop discovering phosphorus.
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Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

How to fix three major risks of the permanent portfolio.

Book cover the The Permanent Portfolio.
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Measuring the Tax Drag of Trend Following

The goal of this post is to put concrete numbers on the tax impact of trend following strategies in taxable accounts. I tested 12-month and 6-month trend strategies from 1998 to 2019 on three stock index funds: * U.S. stocks with Vanguard’s VTSMX (ETF equivalent is VTI) * International stocks

Measuring the Tax Drag of Trend Following
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Analyzing Bond Performance in Stock Corrections

The table below shows the performance of bond categories during each -10% S&P 500 drawdown since 1987. VBMFX and BND for US aggregate bonds, FGOVX, VFITX, and VGIT for intermediate-term US government bonds, VWEHX and JNK for intermediate-term US high yield corporate bonds, MFBFX, VFICX, and LQD for

Analyzing Bond Performance in Stock Corrections